22
Feb
Grains
Grain prices this morning are mixed with Mar corn unch, Mar soybeans -1.75 (-0.17%), Mar wheat +0.25 (+0.06%). Grains on Wednesday settled mixed: Mar corn +0.25 (+0.07%), Mar soybeans +7.75 (+0.75%), Mar wheat -2.00 (-0.45%). Bullish factors included (1) drought concerns in Argentina, the world’s largest soybean meal exporter, that have pushed soybean meal prices to a 1-1/2 year high, which is supportive for soybean prices, and (2) drought concerns in the Great Plains may curb U.S. winter wheat yields after U.S. Drought Monitor data showed 42.85% of the area was experiencing moderate drought as of Feb 15, up from 13.64% three months ago, although down slightly from 44.12% the prior week. A bearish factor for wheat is increased wheat exports from Russia, the world’s biggest wheat exporter, which may further erode demand for U.S. wheat as Russia wheat exports from Jul 1-Feb 14 are up +39% y/y at 25.4 MMT. A negative for soybeans was the recent action by researcher AgRural to raise their 2017/18 Brazil soybean crop estimate to a record 116.2 MMT from a Jan estimate of 114 MMT. Strong Chinese soybean demand for U.S soybeans has been a major bullish factor for soybean prices as China 2017 soybean imports rose +13.9% y/y to a record 95.54 MMT and the China National Grain and Oils Information Center estimates China 2018 soybean imports will rise +5% y/y to a record 100 MMT.