04
Aug
Summary: If StoneX’s (INTL FCStone) corn estimate is too high, the median error (in years when the StoneX’s estimate was too high) was 1.6%. Based on StoneX’s estimate of 15,320 Mil Bu, that would equate to about 252 Mil Bu less – – or 15,068 Mil Bu. USDA’s July WASDE corn crop projection was 15,000 Mil Bu. Last year’s final crop was 13,617 Mil Bu. Last year, StoneX’s August corn estimate was 0.7% ABOVE the USDA’s estimate.
If StoneX’s soybean estimate is too high, the median error (in years when the StoneX’s estimate was too high) was 2.1%. Based on StoneX’s estimate of 4,496 Mil Bu, that would equate to about 95 Mil Bu less – – or 4,401 Mil Bu. USDA’s July WASDE soybean crop projection was 4,135 Mil Bu. Last year’s final crop was 3,552 Mil Bu. Last year, StoneX’s August soybean estimate was 1.7% ABOVE the USDA’s estimate.
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StoneX is the first of many analysts estimates that will be released in the next few days. Based on history gleaned from news reports that were compiled over time (and which are believed to be accurate), it appears that StoneX’s August crop estimates have a slight tendency to be larger than the USDA August Crop Report’s estimates.
Fifty-nine percent of the time, StoneX’s August corn crop estimate was above USDA’s August Crop Report’s estimate. In the years that StoneX’s estimate was too large, the median error was 1.6%. However, two-thirds of the time, the USDA’s August Crop Report’s estimate came within 2.2% plus-or-minus of StoneX’s estimate.
Fifty-six percent of the time, StoneX’s August soybean crop estimate was above USDA’s August Crop Report’s estimate. In the years that StoneX’s estimate was too large, the median error was 2.1%. However, two-thirds of the time, the USDA’s August Crop Report’s estimate came within 2.9% plus-or-minus of StoneX’s estimate.